Warsh Holds the Line: The Fed Pauses With the 10-Year Above 5%
The Fed is expected to hold rates steady under Chair Kevin Warsh despite elevated inflation, as Treasury yields hold near 5% and oil prices climb.
Economics
Inflation, employment, GDP, interest rates, central banks, fiscal policy, and macroeconomic indicators.
Gilt Buyers to Healey: Keep Your Hands Off the Fiscal Rules
Large bond investors want a disciplined Budget this week with no tinkering with the fiscal rules, after a rise in UK borrowing costs.
Mortgage Rates Dip for a Third Day, but 7% Still Rules American Housing
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 7.24%, down slightly from a week ago, while Freddie Mac's weekly survey shows 7.32%.
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Slips Below 5% as Investors Retain Safe-Haven Positions
The benchmark 10-year yield traded just under 5% on Monday after last week's sharp drop, as investors waited for Wednesday's Fed decision and a heavy data calendar.
Asian Markets Open Cautiously as Wall Street Futures Edge Higher Ahead of Earnings
Asian shares started the week cautiously while U.S. futures edged up, ahead of a week packed with central bank meetings and megacap earnings.
Dollar Softens as Lower Treasury Yields Narrow Its Interest-Rate Advantage
The dollar eased on Monday as Treasury yields slipped and oil retreated, with the dollar index near 101.5 ahead of the Fed, ECB and Bank of Japan decisions.
Five Major Central Banks Face Rate Decisions as Elevated Oil Prices Keep Inflation Risks in Focus
The Fed, Bank of Canada, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, ECB and Bank of Japan all decide this week, with oil-driven inflation limiting room to ease.
U.S. GDP and Inflation Releases to Test Outlook as Markets Look Beyond Expected Fed Hold
Third-quarter GDP and September PCE inflation arrive the day after the Fed decision, and may shape expectations for a December hike.
India’s Bonds Face Oil and Liquidity Pressures After Tenth Consecutive Weekly Yield Rise
India's 10-year bond yield rose for a tenth straight week, its longest losing streak in about 30 years, as crude, U.S. yields and tight liquidity weighed.
PBOC Holds Loan Prime Rates for a 17th Month as Governor Pan Signals the Overnight Repo Rate Will Become China's Policy Benchmark
China's central bank left its benchmark lending rates unchanged on Tuesday, as expected, a day after its governor said it will study switching its main policy rate to the overnight reverse repo rate. The study is a signal about how policy will be run, not an immediate change for borrowers.
France Counts 550,000 Marchers and Nearly 2,400 Arrests as the Budget Faces Its First Vote on Tuesday
Saturday's cost-of-living protests drew about 550,000 people, far more than authorities had projected, and ended in the worst unrest France has seen in years. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu's minority government now asks the National Assembly to back the first part of a 2027 budget built on €54 billion of savings.
France’s Cost-of-Living Protests Put Budget Cuts on a Collision Course With Household Demands
Students, unions and a revived Yellow Vest movement are demonstrating across France on Saturday, and authorities estimated beforehand that nearly 200,000 people could take part. Their demands for protection from inflation and more spending on schools run directly against a 2027 budget that seeks €43 billion in new savings to cut the deficit to 5% of GDP.
US Inflation Reaccelerates: Why Headline and Core Measures Must Be Read Together
Both the headline and core measures of US consumer inflation rose in September's data. Energy did most of the monthly work, but the components show it was not the only force, and that is why the two numbers need to be read side by side.
Gasoline Inflation Surges While Grocery Prices Slip: The Split Behind the US Price Shock
September's 0.6% rise in US consumer prices was driven mainly by a 9.1% jump in gasoline, while prices for groceries eaten at home slipped 0.1%, Bureau of Labor Statistics data show.
IMF Lifts 2026 Global Growth Forecast to 3.1% but Warns AI Boom and War Inflation Could Turn
The International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for global growth this year to 3.1%, but its assumptions of $96 oil and a reopened Strait of Hormuz by March leave the outlook exposed to the war and to an AI investment boom.
Hall and Woodford Win Nobel Economics Prize for Foundations of Stabilisation Policy
American economists Robert E. Hall and Michael Woodford won the Nobel Memorial Prize in economics on Monday for models that help governments and central banks steady economies after shocks such as energy crises and inflation.
September CPI Expected to Jump to About 3.7% on Energy Before Fed Meeting
US consumer price growth is expected to accelerate when September data is released Wednesday, driven by energy, while core inflation is seen holding at 2.4%.
Fed's Waller Backs More Rate Hikes but Says They Need Not Come at Back-to-Back Meetings
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Thursday that more rate hikes are likely needed to achieve 2% inflation, but increases do not have to occur at consecutive meetings.
US Trade Deficit Widens to $105.6 Billion in August
The U.S. trade deficit widened to $105.6 billion in August, driven by record imports and notable shifts in goods categories. The figures signal implications for GDP and ongoing tariff policy.
US Services Keep Growing, but Input Prices Climb to Their Highest Since 2022
US services activity continued to expand in September, but input prices surged to their highest since 2022, complicating the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook as supply chain strains persist.
Bank of Japan Normalization Path Confronts Resilient Business Sentiment and Timing Ambiguity - 1 October 2026
Japan’s September Tankan showed manufacturing sentiment rising alongside persistent inflation expectations, though policy summary signals left the yen weaker on timing doubts.
RBA Raises Cash Rate Target to 4.60% Amid Persistent Price Pressures - 30 September 2026
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60%, reaching its highest level since late 2011 as policymakers confront above-target inflation and energy costs.
RBA Raises Cash Rate to 4.60% Amid Persistent Energy Price Pressures - 29 September 2026
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate target to 4.60%, tightening policy into slowing demand as energy costs keep inflation above the 2-3% target band.
Inflation Persistence and the Policy Reaction Function — 29 September 2026
Macro indicators that matter when inflation stays above target bands Edition focus: 29 September 2026.
Policy Rates and Inflation: Reading the Spread — 29 September 2026
A sourced view of how published policy rates relate to inflation prints Edition focus: 29 September 2026.
Policy Rates and Inflation: Reading the Spread — 25 September 2026
A sourced view of how published policy rates relate to inflation prints Edition focus: 25 September 2026.
Inflation Persistence and the Policy Reaction Function — 24 September 2026
Macro indicators that matter when inflation stays above target bands Edition focus: 24 September 2026.
Policy Rates and Inflation: Reading the Spread — 24 September 2026
A sourced view of how published policy rates relate to inflation prints Edition focus: 24 September 2026.
Inflation Persistence and the Policy Reaction Function
Macro indicators that matter when inflation stays above target bands.
Policy Rates and Inflation: Reading the Spread
A sourced view of how published policy rates relate to inflation prints.
Inflation Persistence and the Policy Reaction Function
Macro indicators that matter when inflation stays above target bands.
Policy Rates and Inflation: Reading the Spread
A sourced view of how published policy rates relate to inflation prints.
Economics Intelligence Brief — 2026-09-10
Editorial economics briefing for 2026-09-10, framing macro transmission, growth and inflation research framing alongside the journal's market desks.
Economics Intelligence Brief — 2026-03-04
Editorial economics briefing for 2026-03-04, framing macro transmission, growth and inflation research framing alongside the journal's market desks.
Economics Intelligence Brief — 2026-09-09
Editorial economics briefing for 2026-09-09, framing macro transmission, growth and inflation research framing alongside the journal's market desks.