Morning Edition · Mon 12 Oct 2026
September CPI Expected to Jump to About 3.7% on Energy Before Fed Meeting
US consumer price growth is expected to accelerate when September data is released Wednesday, driven by energy, while core inflation is seen holding at 2.4%, investingLive reported.
Chanan Zevin - Chief Editor and Head of Desks
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What forecasters expect
The market expects headline CPI to climb 0.6% in September, lifting the annual rate to around 3.7% from 3.4%, investingLive reported. The Cleveland Fed’s nowcast points to about 3.6% on the year, according to the outlet.
Energy is the main driver, investingLive said, with analysts expecting energy prices to rise around 5.5% in the month, led by gasoline. Core inflation is forecast to rise about 0.2%, keeping the annual core rate at 2.4%.
An awkward split for the Fed
The report, due Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, is the last inflation reading before the Federal Reserve’s October 27-28 meeting, investingLive reported. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, and the odds of another move in October fell to around one in four after September payrolls showed only 29,000 jobs added, investingLive reported on Sunday, October 11. CME FedWatch data cited by Reuters on Friday, October 9, put the October odds at 19.4%.
A firm core reading would likely revive October hike bets, while a soft one would reinforce expectations of a December move, investingLive said. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at the IMF meetings in Bangkok early Friday, his last scheduled remarks before the meeting.