Edition · Mon 02 Nov 2026
Forex Desk
The Dollar Treads Water Before the Midterms as France Weighs on the Euro
The dollar eased to 101.83 ahead of US midterm elections, while the euro hovered near $1.1182 after Fitch lowered France's credit outlook to negative.
Not investment advice: this article is for information only.
By Rachel · Edited by Chanan Zevin - Chief Editor and Head of Desks
Published
Dollar steadies as traders await congressional vote
The US dollar eased against major peers on Monday, Nov 2, as investors adopted a holding pattern ahead of the upcoming United States midterm elections and a series of central bank interest rate meetings.
Dollar steadies as traders await congressional vote
The dollar index declined 0.15% to 101.83 against a basket of currencies, while sterling was little changed at $1.3394. Markets were preparing for a busy week featuring the US congressional elections, October US employment data, and monetary policy decisions from central banks in Britain, Australia, Norway, and Sweden.
Dollar steadies as traders await congressional vote
This dynamic matters because political vulnerability on both sides of the Atlantic is compounding monetary policy divergence, directly affecting cross-border capital flows. With hedge funds having absorbed significant losses in October, market participants possess limited shock-absorbing capacity if legislative shifts stall infrastructure spending or reignite contentious fiscal standoffs.
French credit downgrade keeps euro pinned down
The euro hovered close to a 17-month trough at $1.1182 during Asian trade. The common currency remained under strain after Fitch revised its outlook on France's sovereign credit rating to negative from stable following the market close on Friday.
French credit downgrade keeps euro pinned down
Political scrutiny simultaneously turned to Washington, where American voters prepared to cast ballots on Tuesday to determine whether the Democratic Party can reclaim control of Congress from US President Donald Trump's Republican Party. Forecasts widely anticipated Democrats winning the House of Representatives, whereas control of the Senate remained contested.
French credit downgrade keeps euro pinned down
Eric Robertsen, global head of research and chief strategist at Standard Chartered, said that polling indicates widespread anti-incumbent sentiment, though such figures do not consistently reflect final voting tallies. Robertsen observed that a Democratic sweep of Congress could create obstacles at the state level for AI infrastructure and data center expenditure, while rendering the upcoming US debt ceiling debate exceptionally contentious.
French credit downgrade keeps euro pinned down
Andreja Cobeljic, head of derivatives trading at AMINA Bank, said hedge funds endured significant losses in October, leaving trading desks with little capacity to absorb unexpected results from the legislative vote.
Monetary policy moves drive Asia-Pacific currencies
Regional currencies across the Asia-Pacific region recorded modest declines amid monetary policy developments. The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 157.73 per dollar, as the Bank of Japan stated on Monday in its full quarterly outlook report that domestic real interest rates had risen, particularly across long- and super-long tenors.
Monetary policy moves drive Asia-Pacific currencies
The Australian dollar declined 0.15% to $0.7022 prior to Tuesday's policy meeting, where the Reserve Bank of Australia was widely projected to increase its benchmark cash rate to a near two-decade peak of 4.85%. Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar fell 0.26% to $0.5616, having dropped 1.2% in the prior week following its central bank's decision to maintain rates without changes.
Cryptocurrencies recover following platform breach
Digital assets rebounded modestly following an unprecedented theft at Binance, where hackers stole $6.3 billion from the platform in an attack attributed by the Federal Bureau of Investigation to North Korea. Binance users subsequently withdrew $3.64 billion, representing 2.1% of platform assets, after the company resumed transactions.
Cryptocurrencies recover following platform breach
Bitcoin rose 0.6% to $78,262.63 after striking a six-week low on Friday, while ether gained 1.14% to $2,287.18 following a fall to a two-month low the previous week. Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey Group, said that although the security incident shocked sentiment, it did not cause concentrated panic withdrawals, as many users retained assets or relocated holdings to self-custody wallets.