Weekend Edition · Sat 17 Oct 2026
America's Clean-Energy Record Could Be a Race Against Expiring Tax Credits
US developers planned a record 86 gigawatts of new utility-scale power capacity for 2026, led by solar and batteries, but only about 26 gigawatts of clean capacity had actually come online by the end of June. Much of the push is a race to finish wind and solar projects before federal tax credits narrow, which makes this year's record a deadline story as much as a growth story.
Chanan Zevin - Chief Editor and Head of Desks
Published
A record in the making
Bloomberg published a newsletter on 16 October headlined "Clean Energy Is Poised to Set New Records in the US". The Journal could not access the full text of that report, so this article relies on public data from federal agencies and industry groups. Those sources support the core point. Developers are building at a record pace, and many of them say the timing is driven by federal deadlines. What the data cannot yet show is whether the record will actually be delivered by 31 December.
The federal plan for 2026
In February, the Energy Information Administration said developers planned to add 86 gigawatts of utility-scale generating capacity in 2026, a record if realized. Solar made up 51% of the planned additions, battery storage 28% and wind 14%, the agency said. Those are plans reported by developers, not completed projects. In 2025, 53 gigawatts was added, the largest single-year total since 2002, according to the EIA. The 2026 plan would beat that by more than half.
Solar's planned jump
Utility-scale solar carries most of the expected growth. Developers planned 43.4 gigawatts of solar for 2026, a 60% increase over the 27.2 gigawatts added in 2025, according to the EIA. The record for a completed year is 30.8 gigawatts, set in 2024. Chart 1 shows actual annual additions for 2024 and 2025, the actual total for the first half of 2026, and the full-year 2026 plan in a lighter shade to mark it as a forecast. Texas alone accounts for 40% of the planned solar capacity.
What has been built so far
Actual completions lag the plan. In the first half of 2026, 26 gigawatts of clean power capacity came online, including 11.5 gigawatts of solar, 8.3 gigawatts of batteries and 6.3 gigawatts of wind, according to an Environmental Defense Fund analysis of EIA data published in September. To reach the full-year solar plan, developers would need to connect about 32 gigawatts in the second half, by the Journal's arithmetic. That would be more than any full year on record. Plans reported to the EIA often slip into the following year.
Utility solar accelerates
Industry data show the acceleration is real. The US solar industry installed 11.4 gigawatts of direct-current capacity in the second quarter, up 45% from a year earlier, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association and Wood Mackenzie. Utility-scale installations rose 61% to 9.6 gigawatts. The groups said the increase reflected a race to place safe-harbored projects into service before the Section 48E and 45Y tax credit window closes. Their figures are measured in direct current, so they are not directly comparable with EIA's alternating-current data.
The deadlines that matter
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed on 4 July 2025, accelerated the phase-out of the technology-neutral clean electricity credits for wind and solar. Under the law, wind and solar projects keep eligibility only if they began construction by 4 July 2026 or are placed in service by 31 December 2027, according to the EDF and Deloitte. Battery storage and other eligible technologies have until 2033 to begin construction and until the end of 2037 to be placed in service for full credits, Deloitte said. The residential solar credit for homeowners, Section 25D, expired at the end of 2025, SEIA said.
A pipeline locked in
The July 2026 construction deadline has passed. SEIA and Wood Mackenzie estimate that the safe-harbored solar pipeline, which keeps its tax-credit eligibility, totals between 216 and 240 gigawatts of direct-current capacity. They say it can support installations through 2030, even after some projects drop out. Developers that missed the deadline now face what the groups call the December 2027 placed-in-service cliff. That deadline is what turns this year and next into a race.
Record or pull-forward
In the Journal's analysis, the deadline structure means a 2026 record may partly reflect projects pulled forward from later years. SEIA and Wood Mackenzie forecast that annual US solar additions will stay roughly flat, at around 44 gigawatts of direct-current capacity a year, through 2031. They cite permitting and interconnection bottlenecks and the transition after tax credits expire. A flat outlook after a record suggests a plateau rather than a continuing climb. That is a forecast, and it could change with demand from data centres.
Batteries have more runway
Battery storage is on a different schedule. Developers planned 24 gigawatts of utility-scale batteries for 2026, compared with a record 15 gigawatts added in 2025, according to the EIA. About 80% of the planned capacity is in Texas, California and Arizona. The longer credit window gives storage more time, but SEIA said rules on prohibited foreign entities remain incomplete and become stricter in 2027. Treasury must publish further safe-harbor tables by 31 December 2026, the group said.
| Technology | 2025 actual (GW) | H1 2026 actual (GW) | 2026 plan, forecast (GW) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Battery storage | 15 | 8.3 | 24 |
| Wind | not stated (under 5.9) | 6.3 | 11.8 |
Wind's mixed picture
Wind is set for a rebound from a low base. The EIA said 11.8 gigawatts of wind was planned for 2026, more than double the amount added in 2025, including the 3,650-megawatt SunZia project in New Mexico. Two delayed offshore projects, the 800-megawatt Vineyard Wind 1 and the 715-megawatt Revolution Wind, were also planned to come online this year. At the same time, the EDF said about 30 gigawatts of onshore wind projects are effectively stalled by federal headwinds. Deloitte reported that offshore lease buybacks halted nine projects totalling 17.4 gigawatts in the first half.
Cancellations are rising
Not every project will make it. Developers cancelled 14.9 gigawatts of planned and under-construction clean power capacity in the first half of 2026, more than in all of 2025, when 13.1 gigawatts was cancelled, according to the EDF. The group estimated the cancelled projects at $24.5 billion of investment. Over the same period, planned natural gas capacity rose from 44.8 gigawatts to 68.3 gigawatts. Those figures show the pipeline shifting even as completions hit records.
Texas leads both ways
One state dominates the story. Texas has 165 gigawatts of clean power capacity, nearly twice California's 84 gigawatts, and leads the country in solar, onshore wind and batteries, according to the EDF. It is also the leader in cancellations, with about 6.1 gigawatts of clean capacity cancelled in the first half of 2026, compared with 5.4 gigawatts in all of 2025. The EIA expects 40% of this year's planned solar and 53% of planned battery capacity to be built there. Whether the national record is reached depends heavily on Texas.
Trade rules add cost
Trade measures are changing project economics. A proclamation signed on 6 August imposes a 15% tariff and minimum import prices on solar polysilicon, wafers, cells and modules from 4 December 2026, SEIA said. On 28 July, the Federal Communications Commission added foreign-produced power inverters to its Covered List. SEIA said safe-harbored equipment should limit the near-term effect on installations. It also reported that logistics costs have risen more than 15%, partly because of higher oil and gas prices since the Middle East conflict began.
Clean power's share grows
The generation data show the effect of earlier building. Renewables supplied more than 29% of US electricity in the first seven months of 2026, up from 26.8% a year earlier, according to an analysis of EIA data by the SUN DAY Campaign reported by Electrek. Utility-scale solar output rose 22% over the same period. Wind and solar together, including small rooftop systems, produced 21.6% of US electricity. Those are actual measured outputs, not forecasts.
The next 12 months
The EIA's latest developer data point to continued growth. Electrek, citing the SUN DAY Campaign's review of EIA figures, reported that 43.6 gigawatts of utility-scale solar, 9.5 gigawatts of wind and 23.4 gigawatts of batteries are expected between August 2026 and July 2027. Fossil fuel capacity is projected to fall by about 1.5 gigawatts over the same period. Those numbers are developer plans and are subject to the same slippage as the 2026 figures. They indicate momentum, not guaranteed completions.
What to watch
The EIA's monthly generator inventory will show how much of the 2026 plan is completed in the fourth quarter. Treasury's guidance on foreign-entity rules, due by the end of the year, will shape battery and solar decisions for 2027. The December 2027 deadline will define the next 14 months for projects outside the safe harbor. Whether 2026 sets a record now depends on construction crews and grid connections rather than on policy. The bigger question is what happens to annual additions once the tax-credit race ends.
Sources
- Official data: US EIA, 'New US electric generating capacity expected to reach a record high in 2026' (Today in Energy, 20 Feb 2026); EIA Electric Power Monthly data as analysed by the SUN DAY Campaign (Electrek, 28 Sep 2026).
- Industry and research: SEIA/Wood Mackenzie Solar Market Insight Q3 2026 (10 Sep 2026); EDF, The State of Clean Power in Q2 2026 (Sep 2026); Deloitte Insights, OBBBA and US renewable power (20 Aug 2026).
- Reporting basis: Bloomberg Green newsletter 'Clean Energy Is Poised to Set New Records in the US' (16 Oct 2026) - headline only; full text not accessed.