The Zevin Intelligence Journal

Chanan Zevin | Chief Editor and Head of Desks

Editorial

Regular Edition · Mon 26 Oct 2026

Chanan Zevin, founder and editor of The Zevin Intelligence Journal
Chanan Zevin, founder and editor

Oil, Rates and Ballots: A Week Where Markets Must Price Both War and Democracy

Houthi strikes, a five-bank rate week and elections in Brazil and Israel leave investors facing more event risk than at any point this autumn.

The Zevin Intelligence Journal

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AI-generated image of a world map, an oil barrel model and a compass on a desk
AI-generated image: AI-generated image (illustrative, not a photograph of the events or places described)

The energy line

Every story in this edition runs through oil. Houthi claims of strikes on Saudi pipeline stations and Riyadh's airport pushed Brent to its highest weekly close since mid-2022 last week, Reuters reported, before Qatari mediation pulled it back on Monday. Analysts quoted by Reuters warn the reprieve may be temporary.

The rate line

That oil price is now the central banks' problem. Five of them meet this week. The Fed is expected to hold, but a Reuters poll shows nearly all economists expect a December hike. Bonds have rallied, with the 10-year yield under 5%, while gold has fallen through $4,000. Those moves cannot all be right for long.

The ballot line

Brazil's runoff and Israel's Tuesday election remind investors that politics is not background noise. Lula's opponent refuses to concede; Israel is deploying more than 20,000 police officers. Our view: in a week like this, position for volatility, not for a single outcome, and read the data, not the headlines.

Sources

  1. Reuters via Yahoo Finance, 'Oil drops from near six-month highs on hopes Iran war hostilities to ease', 26 October 2026 · finance.yahoo.com
  2. Reuters via Euronext, 'Asian shares make cautious start, Brent eases from six-month high', 26 October 2026 · live.euronext.com
  3. Reuters via Investing.com, 'Fed to skip October but raise rates again in December, nearly all economists say: Reuters poll' · investing.com
  4. CNBC, 'U.S. Treasury yields are little changed as investors look ahead to the Fed's rate decision', 26 October 2026 · cnbc.com
  5. BBC News, 'Lula wins in Brazil elections but faces hostile Congress and divided country' · bbc.com
  6. Matzav.com, 'More Than 20,000 Israeli Police Officers to Be Deployed as Authorities Prepare for Tuesday's Knesset Vote' · matzav.com

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