Edition · Thu 05 Nov 2026
Geo-politics Desk
Tehran Celebrates, Kyiv Hopes, Jerusalem Worries: What Trump's Defeat Means Abroad
Around the world, governments are recalculating after Tuesday's rebuke of the American president. Iran sees vindication, Ukraine sees hope and Israel's leaders see a Washington that may no longer give them a blank cheque.
By Rachel · Edited by Chanan Zevin - Chief Editor and Head of Desks
Published
Tehran reads the results
Iran is celebrating Mr. Trump's midterm setback, and bracing for what comes next. After eight months of striking the region's economic lifelines to turn American voters against the war, Tehran has hailed the Republican loss as a public verdict on it. "If the US government betrays their public will to serve international paymasters and blackmailers, it will learn our NO comes with a Nightmare," wrote the parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who has led negotiations with Washington.
Tehran reads the results
Iran's leaders are not betting on a change of course. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said anyone who thinks the results will shift American policy is "deeply mistaken." This week Mr. Trump told some journalists he was considering striking Iran hard, and others that he had no immediate plans to escalate. "The danger is that a president weakened at the ballot box may seek redemption on the battlefield," said Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group.
Tehran reads the results
Diplomacy offers another path. Talks that stalled over the summer have picked up, with Tehran sending officials to Qatari mediators who are circulating proposals with Washington. Sanam Vakil of Chatham House said an interim deal on the Strait of Hormuz was "more realistic" than a comprehensive one.
Israel loses its safety net
In Israel, the results are being treated as a five-alarm fire. On Election Day, Mr. Trump announced that he would cut off American military aid to the country. Bipartisan support had already been eroding, and it hardened during the Iran war, with many Americans coming to see the joint strikes as a war Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sold to Mr. Trump.
Israel loses its safety net
"The only bipartisan issue right now is criticism of Israel," said Michael Oren, a former Israeli ambassador to Washington, who warned that intelligence sharing, joint weapons programs and the American veto at the United Nations could all come into question. "We are at the end of an era," he said. Yair Golan, leader of Israel's left-wing Democrats party, warned that Israel "does not have time to waste" in replacing Mr. Netanyahu.
Kyiv sees a balance of power
Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, said he hoped the "blue wave" would strengthen American support for his country's defence against Russia. "The Democrats speak very clearly about supporting Ukraine and providing assistance to Ukraine," he told the German broadcaster ZDF. "There is hope that a balance of power will emerge and that we will receive more support."
Kyiv sees a balance of power
His relationship with Mr. Trump has been in freefall for weeks. Mr. Trump has demanded that Mr. Zelensky be replaced and courted energy deals that would benefit Russia. A deputy in Mr. Zelensky's office, Sergiy Kyslytsia, said Ukraine would keep seeking "genuine, normal and stable relations" with whoever is in office, and would keep asking for Patriot interceptors.
The risk of a ticking clock
There is a downside for Kyiv. Russian President Vladimir Putin may conclude that he has roughly a year to pursue the best possible battlefield outcome before the 2028 campaign pulls Republican policy back toward the pro-Ukraine mainstream.
The risk of a ticking clock
For allies and adversaries alike, the lesson of Tuesday was the same: the clock on Mr. Trump's presidency is now ticking loudly. Governments from Tehran to Kyiv will spend the next two years weighing how much to bet on him, and how much on whoever comes next.