Thursday Edition · Thu 22 Oct 2026
Final Polls Before Israel's 27 October Election Show a 51-51 Deadlock, With Arab Parties and the Reservists Holding the Balance
Five days before Israelis vote, the final Times of Israel poll gives Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc and Gadi Eisenkot's Zionist opposition 51 seats each, ten short of a majority. Campaign pledges on who will sit with whom make any coalition hard to build.
Chanan Zevin - Chief Editor and Head of Desks
Published
The final snapshot
The final election poll from The Times of Israel's sister site, Zman Yisrael, published on Thursday, shows the right-wing bloc led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Zionist opposition headed by Gadi Eisenkot tied at 51 seats each. A coalition needs 61 of the Knesset's 120 seats. The poll was conducted on 14 and 15 October among 500 Jewish and Arab respondents, with a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points. That margin is wide enough to move several seats in either direction.
The two largest parties
Eisenkot's Yashar party would win 23 seats, three fewer than in the previous week's survey, according to the poll. Netanyahu's Likud would win 21, one more than a week earlier. The Times of Israel noted that US President Donald Trump announced his endorsement of Netanyahu between the two polls. The shift is within the margin of error, so it is not proof that the endorsement changed votes. It does show the race tightening at the top as polling day approaches.
The Arab parties
The anti-Netanyahu camp also includes two Arab-majority parties, the Joint List and Ra'am, which the poll gives 9 and 5 seats respectively. Eisenkot and almost every other Zionist opposition party have pledged not to sit in a coalition with them, The Times of Israel reported. That includes Ra'am, which has said it wants to join a future government and recognises Israel as a Jewish state. These 14 seats are therefore counted outside both blocs for coalition purposes, even though they would vote against Netanyahu.
The Reservists
Yoaz Hendel's new Reservists party has refused to place itself in either bloc and has pledged not to sit with ultra-Orthodox or Arab-majority parties, according to The Times of Israel. The poll gives it 3.6% of the vote, just above the 3.25% threshold, which would mean four seats. If it falls below the threshold, its votes are wasted and the bloc arithmetic shifts. If it enters, its four seats could be decisive for whichever side can meet its conditions.
The threshold drama
The threshold is shaping the final days. Ofer Winter's right-wing People of Israel party, which has pledged to sit only in a Netanyahu-led government, received 3% in the poll and would fail to enter the Knesset. The Times of Israel reported that Netanyahu and allies have pressed Winter to withdraw so that right-wing votes are not lost, and that Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich offered him a ministerial role to quit. Winter has so far refused. A new Haredi list, Charedi Public, has also resisted pressure to withdraw.
Decided voters
Most voters say their minds are made up. In the poll, 87% said they had made a final decision, and only 2.4% said they were undecided between parties in opposite blocs. More than a quarter said they had changed their minds during the campaign's final months, with 19.6% moving between blocs and 6% switching parties within a bloc. With so few voters still undecided between the camps, turnout and the threshold may matter more than persuasion in the last days.
Netanyahu's future
Respondents were also asked whether Netanyahu should retire from politics if he fails to form a government. About 60% said yes, twice as many as those who said he should stay, according to the poll. The question points to a post-election scenario that is no longer hypothetical. If neither bloc reaches 61, Israel could face long negotiations, a minority government or even another election, and the prime minister's own position would become part of the bargaining.
Other polls agree
Other analyses describe a similar picture. The Jewish Chronicle's polling analysis found the opposition bloc widening its lead over Netanyahu's coalition in the final days. Aggregated figures cited by the Israel Votes 2026 coalition builder put Netanyahu's bloc at about 50 to 52 seats and the Zionist opposition at about 50 to 53. Both point to the same conclusion: neither side has a reliable path to 61 if campaign pledges are kept.
Turnout as the swing factor
Turnout among Arab voters could make or break efforts to unseat Netanyahu, Reuters and The Times of Israel reported. Higher Arab turnout raises the number of seats won by the Joint List and Ra'am, which reduces the share available to Netanyahu's bloc even if those parties do not join a coalition. The BBC has described how the Arab parties could hold a critical balance of power. Expatriate voting also features: The Times of Israel reported that a network born in the judicial overhaul protests is encouraging some 50,000 Israelis in the United States to fly home to vote.
Defections and endorsements
The campaign has seen notable shifts among senior figures. Tzachi Hanegbi, a former Netanyahu ally and longtime Likud member, announced he will vote for Avigdor Liberman's party, The Times of Israel reported. Netanyahu, meanwhile, has received Trump's endorsement. Such moves rarely change the result directly, but they shape the media narrative in the final days and can influence voters who are undecided between parties within the same bloc.
Security dominates
Security remains the central issue. The Times of Israel reported that Netanyahu planned an attack on Iran earlier this month that Trump opposed, and that US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met Netanyahu during a secret visit to Israel. Defence Minister Israel Katz said opposition leaders would be to blame for future attacks on Israel, which Eisenkot called an attempt to shift blame in advance. The regional escalation in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf this week keeps those questions in the foreground.
The judiciary and the draft
Domestic issues are also sharply contested. Coalition parties want stronger curbs on the judiciary in the next Knesset, while the opposition seeks to repeal the judicial overhaul laws, The Times of Israel reported. The ultra-Orthodox draft remains a flashpoint: the attorney general said more than 67,000 Haredi men are evading service, and Netanyahu came out against the arrest of draft evaders after 42 were detained at the airport. These issues define the boundaries of any future coalition.
The economy in the background
The Bank of Israel kept interest rates unchanged days before the vote and warned the next government about its fiscal choices, The Times of Israel reported. Wartime spending and higher energy prices put pressure on the budget. Whichever coalition forms will need to pass a budget and manage defence costs while investors watch the deficit. The central bank's warning is a reminder that coalition bargaining over ministries and budgets has real economic consequences.
Scenarios after the vote
Three broad outcomes are possible. One bloc could exceed expectations and reach 61, allowing a relatively quick coalition. A small party such as the Reservists could become kingmaker, extracting conditions in exchange for support. Or deadlock could produce weeks of negotiations, a narrow minority government relying on outside support, or a path back to the polls. The poll numbers make the second and third scenarios at least as likely as the first.
Soldiers and new voters
Voting has already begun for some. The Times of Israel reported that Israeli soldiers are casting ballots at bases, outposts and positions beyond the borders. It also reported that some Druze residents of the Golan Heights, now new citizens, plan to vote in a national election for the first time, with one local mayor expecting many to back Netanyahu out of gratitude for Israel's help to Druze communities in Syria. These are small groups, but in a race this close every few thousand votes can matter.
The inquiry shadow
Legal and investigative issues also hang over the campaign. Netanyahu and other officials have been summoned to testify in a state inquiry into the submarine affair, The Times of Israel reported, with former Mossad head Yossi Cohen and former defence minister Moshe Yaalon among those summoned under warning. The inquiry will not conclude before the vote. It adds to the questions about accountability that opposition parties have made central to their campaign.
What to watch
On election night, watch the threshold parties first: the Reservists, People of Israel and Charedi Public. Their fate will decide how the 120 seats are divided. Then watch Arab turnout and the final split between Yashar and Likud. The Journal will report official results from the Central Elections Committee and will distinguish exit polls from counted votes.
Sources
- The Times of Israel, Final ToI election poll shows blocs in dead heat, 22 Oct 2026 · timesofisrael.com
- The Jewish Chronicle, Opposition bloc widens lead over Netanyahu coalition days out from Knesset election, Oct 2026 · thejc.com
- Israel Votes 2026, Coalition Builder, Oct 2026 · israelielection.org
- BBC, How Arab parties could hold critical balance of power in Israeli election, Oct 2026 · bbc.com
- The Economist, Israel election tracker, Oct 2026 · economist.com
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