Morning Edition · Fri 9 Oct 2026
El Niño Reaches Record Strength and Is Still Building Toward a December Peak
El Niño reached its strongest level ever recorded in September, with central Pacific temperatures more than 3.4°C above average and a projected December peak of around 4.2°C, according to the Washington Post.
Chanan Zevin - Chief Editor and Head of Desks
Published
El Niño Surges to Record Strength in September
El Niño became the strongest on record in September, with central Pacific Ocean temperatures more than 3.4 degrees Celsius above average, according to the Washington Post. This surge surpassed the previous record set in November 2015 and marks an unprecedented escalation in the phenomenon’s intensity. The Washington Post reported that early October data show ocean temperatures in the central Pacific continuing on a record trajectory, with forecasts projecting an average peak of around 4.2 degrees Celsius above average in December.
The Washington Post noted that this level of warming has not been observed since records began in 1850. Forecast scenarios indicate that the current El Niño will exceed the most historically intense events, including those of 1877-78, 1888-89, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16, by a wide margin.
Global Weather Patterns Respond to Pacific Warming
The record-breaking El Niño has already triggered a range of weather extremes around the world, according to the Washington Post. These include numerous hurricanes near Hawaii and across the Pacific, flooding rainfall in the United States, record heat in California, nonstop temperature records in Peru, deluges in Ecuador, and droughts in Indonesia and Papua New Guinea. The Atlantic hurricane season, in contrast, has been notably calm.
States of emergency were declared in Central America, including El Salvador, Honduras, and Panama during August due to El Niño-fueled droughts, while California issued a statewide emergency declaration in September, the Washington Post reported. The effects are expected to intensify and persist, with El Niño likely to linger into 2027.
Billions Face Elevated Risks of Extreme Weather
The Washington Post highlighted that through December, around 2.6 billion people globally have at least a 10 percent chance of experiencing temperatures in the top 5 percent of historical values for the time of year, which is double the normal risk. Regions facing very unusual warmth include the western United States, especially California, the Caribbean, Central America, northern and western South America, much of Africa, Western and Central Europe, the Middle East, southern India, Indonesia, South Asia, and Pacific Islands near the equator.
In terms of precipitation, around 800 million people live in areas with at least a 10 percent chance of much less rainfall than normal, while 1.3 billion live in areas with at least a 10 percent chance of excessive precipitation, according to the Washington Post. These figures represent at least double the normal chance for extreme precipitation. Areas at risk of extreme dryness include the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, and Upper Midwest in the U.S., Central America, northern and far southern South America, northeastern Africa, India, Indonesia, South Asia, several South Pacific island nations, and northern and eastern New Zealand. Conversely, the southern U.S., swaths of South America, parts of Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and central and eastern Asia may see much more precipitation than normal, increasing the risk of flooding.
Implications for Global Temperatures and Policy
The magnitude of this El Niño is expected to have a significant upward influence on global temperatures, with 2027 probably becoming the warmest year on record, according to the Washington Post. The release of heat from the Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere is likely to accelerate warming trends and shift patterns of drought, floods, heat, and humidity worldwide.
For policymakers and markets, the scale and persistence of these changes present acute challenges. Agricultural yields, energy demand, disaster preparedness, and insurance risk models may all be affected by the increased likelihood of extreme weather events. The Washington Post noted that the unprecedented nature of this El Niño introduces uncertainty around the full extent of its impacts, underscoring the need for adaptive strategies in the face of evolving climate risks.